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Mars
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« on: October 31, 2008, 08:30:47 PM » |
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Playing in a full handed cash game, everyone folds around to you on the button. Holding AJ, you make a standard raise to 3.5xbb. The small blind folds, but the big blind, a maniacal player who oddly enough slowplays his monsters, raises all in. His raise is nothing small; you aren't getting much better than 1:1 on your odds. Because of your read, you figure to be a 55-60% favorite on average.
So, the question is: do you call here or fold and wait for a better opportunity to bust this guy?
I ask because in a tournament, the play here is an easy fold. While you'd be getting your money in while ahead in a tournament, a double up in chips does not equate to a double up in tournament equity. Losing chips hurts more than winning chips gains. However, in a cash game, this point is null and void. If you take down a $100 pot, that $100 is yours no matter what.
So..call or fold? Is there any factor that would affect your decision?
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Vilpo89x
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Posts: 30
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« Reply #1 on: November 01, 2008, 04:12:34 AM » |
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depending pretty much how deep are the stacks in cash
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AK = Anna Kournikova, looks good but never wins.
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Vilpo89x
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« Reply #2 on: November 01, 2008, 06:21:55 AM » |
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If he has less than 20BB yes, i would call him because his pushing range is larger then. and if we both are full stacked i wouldnt call this.. because he wont push full stack to get only the 5x BB in pot already with anything worse than AJ.
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« Last Edit: November 01, 2008, 06:25:12 AM by Vilpo89x »
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AK = Anna Kournikova, looks good but never wins.
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7letters
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2008, 06:43:25 AM » |
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Based on the read you gave, I'm inclined to call. Stacks sizes and previous hands would have a bearing on my decision though.
If you play cash games, you're looking to make money over a long period of time by acting when the odds are in your favour. With 1:1 pot odds, if we figure we are ahead 60-40 or 55-45, then call.
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Mars - the pink planet.
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Mars
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2008, 05:00:41 PM » |
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While I will be making money over the long run, I'd actually simply fold, unless the stack size was very small (i.e., <10bbs, if even that). This guy is a maniac - which means I can wait for a better hand, where I know I have him dominated (i.e., with a solid hand postflop or high pair preflop), as my ev is much higher that way. There is the downside that someone may stack him before I get the chance, but there will always be a donkey at a table - if I'm can't get this one's chips I'll take someone else's.
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cmonitzfrdy
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2008, 01:03:56 PM » |
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While I will be making money over the long run, I'd actually simply fold, unless the stack size was very small (i.e., <10bbs, if even that). This guy is a maniac - which means I can wait for a better hand, where I know I have him dominated (i.e., with a solid hand postflop or high pair preflop), as my ev is much higher that way. There is the downside that someone may stack him before I get the chance, but there will always be a donkey at a table - if I'm can't get this one's chips I'll take someone else's.
FTW!!!!!!!!!!
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Mars
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2008, 04:32:13 PM » |
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FTW!!!!!!!!!! 
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Mist
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« Reply #7 on: February 15, 2009, 11:26:49 AM » |
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The results after running this hand in PokerStove: http://img14.imageshack.us/my.php?image=aj555un9.png I think you've overestimated the strength of your hand when figuring AJ to be a 60% favourite aggainst villains range, because aggainst a random hand AJ is nothing better than a 64% favourite.   Aggainst these handranges; 1. You will win $100 55% of the time 2. You will lose $100 45% of the time Your expected value is: $100 * (0.55) - $100 * (0.45) = +$10 Therefore you have a positvie expectation of $10 every time you make the call. EDIT: I'm having a lot of trouble adding the pictures, but they should be showing now.
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« Last Edit: February 15, 2009, 11:40:43 AM by Mist »
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Mars
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« Reply #8 on: February 15, 2009, 11:39:13 AM » |
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The results after running this hand in PokerStove: http://img14.imageshack.us/my.php?image=aj555un9.pngI think you've overestimated the strength of your hand when figuring AJ to be a 60% favourite aggainst villains range, because aggainst a random hand AJ is nothing better than a 64% favourite. http://img8.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ajrndmky0.pngAggainst these handranges; 1. You will win $100 55% of the time 2. You will lose $100 45% of the time Your expected value is: $100 * (0.55) - $100 * (0.45) = +$10 Therefore you have a positvie expectation of $10 every time you make the call. Right - your immediate expected value is in the positive, but is it +ev over the long haul? Making the call here does two things: 1) Reduces your chances of winning against villain to a simple luck-of-the-draw flop, turn and river (instead of being able to outplay him) 2) Ruins any sort of tight table image you may have built up - the table will no longer respect your raises. Even if you double up for 100 big blinds, you will have some serious pressure on your when the table starts (mistakingly) reraises you when you hold legitimate hands such as AQ or JJ.
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Mist
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« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2009, 12:00:33 PM » |
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Right - your immediate expected value is in the positive, but is it +ev over the long haul? Making the call here does two things:
1) Reduces your chances of winning against villain to a simple luck-of-the-draw flop, turn and river (instead of being able to outplay him) 2) Ruins any sort of tight table image you may have built up - the table will no longer respect your raises. Even if you double up for 100 big blinds, you will have some serious pressure on your when the table starts (mistakingly) reraises you when you hold legitimate hands such as AQ or JJ.
1) First of, by looking at villains handranges he must be a hyper agressive and reckless player. In this case, waiting for a better spot might be a good idea, but it's also mathematically correct to call. If this was a HU table I would instafold, because I know I would have a lot of confrontations aggainst villain and would deffinetly wait for a spot where my edge is bigger. But, because we're playing fullring, I'm not sure what I would actually do. Other players have deffinetly realized how reckless villain is, and someone else might take his money before we ever get the chance to do so. 2) I don't see the problem with this. This is exactly what we want. If we the table now considers us to be a loose/agressive player we will get a lot more action everytime we have a real hand, which of course is +EV.
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Mars
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« Reply #10 on: February 15, 2009, 01:27:06 PM » |
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Right - your immediate expected value is in the positive, but is it +ev over the long haul? Making the call here does two things:
1) Reduces your chances of winning against villain to a simple luck-of-the-draw flop, turn and river (instead of being able to outplay him) 2) Ruins any sort of tight table image you may have built up - the table will no longer respect your raises. Even if you double up for 100 big blinds, you will have some serious pressure on your when the table starts (mistakingly) reraises you when you hold legitimate hands such as AQ or JJ.
1) First of, by looking at villains handranges he must be a hyper agressive and reckless player. In this case, waiting for a better spot might be a good idea, but it's also mathematically correct to call. If this was a HU table I would instafold, because I know I would have a lot of confrontations aggainst villain and would deffinetly wait for a spot where my edge is bigger. But, because we're playing fullring, I'm not sure what I would actually do. Other players have deffinetly realized how reckless villain is, and someone else might take his money before we ever get the chance to do so. 2) I don't see the problem with this. This is exactly what we want. If we the table now considers us to be a loose/agressive player we will get a lot more action everytime we have a real hand, which of course is +EV. 1) Yes, it is true someone may bust villain before we get a hand to bust him with ourselves. In my opinion, it's worth it to take that risk, as there's almost always going to be a donkey or two on your table - whether they are hyper aggressive or very tight-passive is irrelevent. However, I can see your point as well. 2) While it works out very nicely when we pick up a real monster such as AA or KK, it puts us in a very tough decision with solid hands which are either vulnerable or very easily dominated (for instance, AQ ending up against AK, or raising with TT, only to get reraised and be forced to fold on a Kxx flop). The way I see it, the less your opponent "knows" about how you play, the less you will have to adjust, and therefore the easier the game will be. An opponent with incorrect information can be just as dangerous as an opponent with correct information (or at least, temporarily).
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Craxer
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« Reply #11 on: February 20, 2009, 04:40:43 AM » |
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Since this is a Cashgame I'd call for profit over the long run, If you go broke you can rebuy and try again, Besides wouldn't he do it with a10- where you are 70% favorite?
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TomPerez
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« Reply #12 on: February 23, 2009, 06:10:39 AM » |
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Since this is a Cashgame I'd call for profit over the long run, If you go broke you can rebuy and try again, Besides wouldn't he do it with a10- where you are 70% favorite?
This. If you're playing within normal BR boundaries (which you always should) then you should take every +EV more that comes along the way. I really see no reason not too, unless you're afraid to lose the money, meaning you shouldn't play the game in the first place. You greatly beat his range so folding is just throwing money away. Please call.
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