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Author Topic: The Independent Chip Model - Calculator and Article  (Read 1153 times)
Mars
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« on: April 20, 2009, 12:08:51 PM »

This thread is for questions, comments, etc., regarding the newly installed Independent Chip Model (ICM) calculator and article installed on the site.  Don't know what the ICM is?  Read the article (posted below the calculator) for an in-depth explanation  Wink

http://7-highforums.com/index.php?action=ICMCalculator
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Mars
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« Reply #1 on: January 31, 2010, 12:16:46 AM »

One thing I noticed while playing around with the calculator -

I entered an initial scenario of a coinflip between the blinds on the very first hand of a Double or Nothing SnG, and found that, assuming a $50 prize pool ($5 entry), a flipper would lose $1.89 on average - quite a bit!

I then entered the same scenario, but changed the payout structure to a standard 10-man $5 SnG - 25/15/10 - and found that, while it is still a losing situation (about $0.49), it is not nearly as bad.

Conclusion: As the payout for first place goes up in relation to the rest of the field, the lesser the strength of your hand must be in order to justify an early gamble.  While some players may take this to mean you should take early gambles in large scale MTTs (such as the Sunday Million), the exact opposite is true - in fact, it's even worse of a move compared to the DoN SnG.

In a DoN SnG, 1st place pays out 20% of the prize pool - in this week's Sunday Million, 1st place only got 14.71% of the prize pool.  Instead, you should be looking at small SnGs where 1st place gets a much larger piece of the pot (although, in small SnGs skill plays a much larger factor in deciding the winner so if you need to rely on luck, you may wanna stay away altogether).
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Mars
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« Reply #2 on: June 17, 2010, 03:32:18 AM »

Giving this a bit of a bump, if only to discuss the value of bounties given they are rising in popularity.

Okay..standard 9-man SnG, $10+5+1 buy in ($5 bounties), let's revisit the first hand coinflip scenario...

Our equity when we win the hand is $18.25+$5 bounty, or $23.25.  Our equity when we lose the hand is 0 (of course), when you average this out we have a $11.625 equity - this would be a winning move.  In fact, as long as you figure to be better than 43.01% to win, you should make the call.  This means if you hold QJ and feel you are up against a weak ace or king, you should make the call!

Of course, one thing it is VERY important to realize is that if you do not actually have the possibility of knocking someone out, you should act as if there are no bounties in play.  You don't want to play to cripple a player, you want to play to knock him/her out entirely.
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