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Author Topic: Never make this mistake..  (Read 251 times)
Mars
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« on: March 05, 2010, 12:26:58 AM »

PokerStars Game #40687716151: Tournament #249400120, $5.00+$0.20 USD Omaha Pot Limit - Level IX (200/400) - 2010/03/05 2:11:00 ET
Table '249400120 1' 10-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: gogol25 (1360 in chips)
Seat 5: k06mars (6250 in chips)
Seat 6: Helen8383 (1485 in chips)
Seat 7: vsem_pizd411 (2770 in chips)
Seat 9: k@dO_On€23 (1460 in chips)
Seat 10: incognito239 (1675 in chips)
k@dO_On€23: posts small blind 200
incognito239: posts big blind 400
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to k06mars [Th As Qs 2h]
gogol25: folds
k06mars: raises 1000 to 1400
Helen8383: folds
vsem_pizd411: raises 1370 to 2770 and is all-in
k@dO_On€23: folds
incognito239: folds
k06mars: calls 1370
*** FLOP *** [4c 7h 8d]
*** TURN *** [4c 7h 8d] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [4c 7h 8d Ks] [Jh]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
k06mars: shows [Th As Qs 2h] (high card Ace)
vsem_pizd411: shows [Ac 7d 3h Ad] (a pair of Aces)
vsem_pizd411 collected 6140 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 6140 | Rake 0
Board [4c 7h 8d Ks Jh]
Seat 2: gogol25 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: k06mars showed [Th As Qs 2h] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 6: Helen8383 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: vsem_pizd411 (button) showed [Ac 7d 3h Ad] and won (6140) with a pair of Aces
Seat 9: k@dO_On€23 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 10: incognito239 (big blind) folded before Flop

For clarification purposes, the mistake was made by vsem_pizd411, not myself.  While villain did have the stronger hand (and had every reason to believe he was a favorite), we were only one spot out of the money of a DoN SnG, and he was not in danger of bubbling.  While he was by no means a "given" to place with his stack, he did have close to double the stack of the other 4 players.

In satellite-style games (such as the Double-or-Nothing SnG), end stack doesn't matter - just that you survive.  It doesn't matter if you have 10k chips at the end or just 10, everyone gets the same prize.  By shoving in this situation, the potential gain of villain is quite small - at best he doubles up, which doesn't help much since he was a pretty strong favorite to cash anyway.  However, if and when I hit my flush or straight draw, he goes from a strong 2nd place position to bubble boy, all because he wanted to shove with the best hand.  Next time, do yourself a favor and FOLD.

For those who are interested, the SnG ended a few hands later, when one of the 4 lower stacks busted.
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Mars
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2010, 12:36:07 AM »

Figured I'd make a comment about my own play, too...

I just ran the numbers through our ICM calculator.  Villains hand was a 61.13% favorite.  Let's think about this.  I was up against one of the worst hands my hand could run into, and yet I was only about a 3:2 dog - this is like having JT run into AK, people.  Anyway, knowing all of this, my tournament equity did drop a little bit - from $9.94521 (out of 10) to $9.76582, a difference of .17939, a rather small difference.  In the worst case scenario (which happened), my equity is still $9.61, beaten in this case only by villain, while the closest equity behind me is $7.96511.

Anyway, so my call of his all in was a bad move - but not by much.  His all in, though, is horrendous - his equity is lowered on average to $6.06252, a drop of $3.31978!

Not very often you hear shoving with aces can lose you over 1/3 of your equity on average Smiley
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