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Author Topic: What would ICM say?  (Read 284 times)
7letters
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« on: August 07, 2010, 11:07:13 AM »

What do you do here? 3 paid so ITM. Paying 3rd- $36 2nd- $54 1st- $90

$250/$500 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 07 08 2010 17:00:33
$30 + $3 - Table #1 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 3
Seat 1: Hero ( $1,525 )
Seat 2: Biggy ( $6,865 )
Seat 6: Small ( $610 )
Hero posts small blind [$250]
Biggy posts big blind [$500]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ Ad, 9s ]
Small folds
Hero ?

Not my hand. No reads on Biggy.

My thoughts are: I'd shove here, still at least some fold equity hopefully and if he does call with any2
I'm prob 60% fave.
I want to avoid a call from pocket pairs but a range of 22-88 isn't so bad.

I'm not au fiat with the ICM calculator and I'd be interested what that throws up.

How does shoving/folding here effect your equity with regards to winning the game outright?..and should you be prepared to shove with lesser holdings than A9?

If you fold here, the next hand is a problem also, where you'll be hoping that Small doesn't double up.


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Mars - the pink planet.
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« Reply #1 on: August 08, 2010, 08:44:17 PM »

A call here is entirely dependent on how large Biggy's calling range is.  Amazingly, if we can expect Biggy to call with ATC a shove is actually a losing move.

While A9 is roughly a 60% favorite against a random holding (60.773% to be exact), the fact is Biggy simply has too big of a stack - even if we manage to double up we would still be at a 5:3 disadvantage chip-wise, and then of course there's the remote chance of the short stack doubling/tripling up back into the game.

If we were to narrow villain's calling range to any pair, any ace, and any two paint, we are reducing our win rate when the hand plays out to just below 50%, but because villain will have one of these holdings so few times it is actually profitable to shove - the money we pick up when villain folds more than accounts for when he calls and we have to get a little lucky.

This hand ultimately comes down to how tight of a calling range villain has, however this hand is more interesting because in a SnG you should generally err on the side of aggression in the end-game.  In this case, you should err on the side of caution due to villain's massive chip lead and the jump in payout between 2nd and 3rd.
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Mars
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« Reply #2 on: August 08, 2010, 08:54:43 PM »

Playing around with the possible hand holdings a bit, it seems even if hero holds AA (85.204% against a random hand) a shove is still only marginally profitable (1.909% increase in equity, assuming standard 50/30/20 payout).
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